expected (beyond the chance of crops) for three or four years is of importance, and peculiar to the coffee crop, that requires so long an interval for increase or diminution. In the meantime it is fair to conclude that consumption will continue to increase, as it has done, as population increases— except as the higher or lower price may check it somewhat-but at prices such as have been common often within the past ten or twenty years, upon which consumption has steadily and largely increased upon an average. There appears to be no reason why it should not be the same now, at even a higher range of prices than the present, which are still below the average, when the price becomes better regulated and understood, so as to induce dealers and traders to lay in their usual supplies.

In continuation it may be worth while, as a matter of curiosity, at least, to consider what has been the cause of the late sudden rise and reaction in the price of coffee, to an extent almost unequalled in any one leading article or staple, for many years. In the first place it seems apparent that the rise was induced by the reported short crops of Rio and Java, coming upon greatly reduced stocks, and at a season (viz, July and December) when receipts as noticed are always light. This allowed speculators-combined with the desire on the part of traders to lay in stocks freely in anticipation of a further rise to work the price up to a height unequalled for many years, viz: to 14 a 15 cts., by which time, in January and February, the arrivals naturally increased rapidly, hurried forward also by stimulating prices, causing an accumulation of stock, and a desire to realize continuing, with an equal disinclination to purchase on the part of the trade on account of high prices and gaining fears of a reaction. This could not but have its effect upon prices, and, once turned downwards the greater eagerness to sell, with an ability on the part of dealers to keep out of market to a great extent, having still some old stock left, caused a decline even more rapid than the rise had been. Still it is apparent, not only from receipts in Europe but in this country, that had sales continued as usual, all the coffee, and much more, would have been required. That prices would rally again, and advance, would appear to be the conclusion, and the necessity, before new crops are in market, from natural reasoning, if our estimates are nearly correct. But how far this may be realized the result alone can show. There are so many circumstances to be taken into consideration in every estimate of the kind, which cannot be known, or, if known, correctly estimated, we can but approximate, at best, towards correct conclusions. We can only say, in this case, that the supply would appear to be less, and considerably less, than the consumption. If so, the effect, we know, would naturally and necessarily be to raise prices; and how soon, and to what extent, an additional price would effect consumption is another question, regarding which opinions would differ. Looking at what has been, and the cheapness of the article as compared with other articles, and as in a great measure a necessary and innocent beverageaffording, probably, more comfort and support to the middle and laboring classes than any other for the same money-it would not seem that a difference of 2 a 3 cts. per lb., or 30 a 40 per cent in price, could make any essential difference, when it is borne in mind that this would be but $2 a $3 more per year for the use of an ordinary family. As regards adulteration, it has always existed, to some extent; and it is pretty well understood that what is gained in weight by this is, in good part, lost in expenditure, and until prices pass 11 a 12 cts. there would be no more room for this than in former years, upon which our calculations are mainly based. At the low

price that has been current for the past few years we have seen that the demand soon overtook the supply; and upon this basis a much more extended supply would be required than we have supposed, or has been obtained prior to any deficiency in crops, viz: in 1847 and 1848, when the aggregate of crops was probably 25 per cent more than this and the past year. Since the preceding, accounts from Rio, to April 16th, fully and more than confirm the foregoing estimates. They say their shipments, from January 1st, 1850, to January 1st, 1851, will not be over 1,350,000 bags against 1,415,000 in 1849, 1,681,000 bags in 1848, and 1,627,000 in 1847-thus showing an aggregate deficiency in the two years, 1849 and 1850, of 563,000 bags, or 90,080,000 lbs., compared with the years 1847 and 1848, to say nothing of increased consumption in the meantime, which has been found, in a series of years embracing prices from 10 a 13 cts. mostly, to be about 4 per cent per annum in Europe to about double that in this country. It is undoubtedly a fact that the deficiency in supply of coffee is larger in proportion to the wants than that of cotton, at the present time, yet the one article has not only fully sustained the large advance, but rather gained in price, while the other has experienced a decline of about 40 per cent, or nearly to the lowest range of prices for any length of time. Capital and confidence have sustained the one, the want of it alone, apparently, has depressed the other; which may serve to show how little, after all, depends upon the actual merits of any one article, and how unsafe such calculations may prove, although generally considered the only sound and safe ones to depend upon. We must conclude it is not reason or necessity so much as feeling and speculation, after all, that regulates those things, often times: but in the end the necessity may be felt, and perhaps obtain its natural consequences by the imperative laws of trade, as is always most probable; and it may be when least expected, as is not unfrequently the case, if it really exist, which time alone in any case can show.

Boston, June 6, 1850.

H.

Accounts from Batavia, to 28th March, say that if the advanced price of coffee should be maintained, the cultivation would, no doubt, be extended in Java, in the course of two or three years; but that if a reaction should take place, and prices go back to the range of the last six years, the exportation of private coffee would, in all probability, entirely cease, thus fully proving the correctness of the views taken, in this respect, in the preceding statement, prior to the receipt of these advices. Some estimates of the present crop, also, do not exceed 700,000 piculs, instead of a full average of 1,000,000 piculs, which I have assumed."

Total import of coffee from Rio Janeiro into the United States, and price of same in New York in January of each year.

1839... 338,033 bags. Average of prices in January 7....

11

a 12 cents.

1840.

275,750

7.

The total imports from 1839 to 1849, inclusive, would give an average for the eleven years of 530,000 bags per year about; or for the year 1844being the middle term-530,000, which is exactly the import, in round numbers. This gives an annual increase of something over 9 per ct., according to which the import of 1850 should amount to 875,000 bags. Under the most favorable circumstances we cannot expect over 640 a 650,000 bags, (see estimate,) which would leave a deficiency of 225 a 235,000 bags, or full 25 per ct. The average price for the eleven years is 8 a 9 cts., as nearly as need be, in January of each year. If we add thereto 25 per cent for the deficiency in supply for 1850 we have 10 a 114 cts. as the corresponding price at which the 25 per cent deficient supply would amount to the same money as a full supply at 8 a 9 cts. As the increase in price is almost always greater than the decrease in supply, it would seem that a higher price even should be looked for if the supply is no more than estimated.

ESTIMATE OF SUPPLY FOR 1850.

Arrived to May 1st ..bags 243,000 | Estimated in October.....

Estimated in May

...

60,000

This is allowing us to receive full one-half of shipments after July 1st, and estimating the shipments to correspond to a full average crop, viz: 1,500 a 1,600,000 bags, and to be equally divided between this country and Europe. As there is no old coffee lying over to go into the new crop after July 1st, it is more likely to be less than more than this estimate, and Europe heretofore has taken 55 per cent of the crop, or more, instead of half only.

The estimated import of 1850 of 875,000 bags, according to the eleven years' increase, is not large, as deficient years come in with those of excess, as is shown by taking the import of 1848, which was 815,000 bags. If we add thereto the average increase of 9 per cent per year, or 19 per cent for two years-viz, to 1850--we have 970,000 bags, or 95,000 more than the average estimate for the high and low prices, and which would be the same for 1850 as 815,000 bags was for 1848.

Boston, May 15, 1850.

H.

Art. VI. JAMES TALLMADGE, LL. D.

PRESIDENT OF THE AMERICAN INSTITUTE.

WE are indebted to the American Institute for an excellent likeness of the gentleman whose name stands at the head of this article, which we present to our readers in the present number.

GENERAL JAMES TALLMADGE is a native of Dutchess county, New York, and graduated at Brown University, R. I., 1798. He studied law, as a profession, and pursued the practice of it for many years with distinguished ability. In 1817 he was returned to the 15th Congress of the United States from his native county. His private pursuits induced him to decline .a reëlection.

From the adoption of the Constitution, in 1787, no question connected with the restriction of slavery in any new State had presented itself to Congress until February, 1819, when the agitation arose in regard to the admission of Missouri. The great question discussed in this debate was to prevent the extension of slavery in territory where it had not existed; and at the same time to leave it as a matter to be regulated by State authority, where it had been already introduced. General Tallmadge sustained, in a speech of great force and clearness, his proposition to amend the bill for the admission of Missouri, restricting the extension of slavery; and he also seconded and advocated the motion of the delegate from Alabama for the admission of that State without the restriction. In support of this position he said, "the principles he had avowed in the debate on the Missouri bill, would guide his course on this bill. That slavery in the old States which formed the Constitution was a question of State authority, and was to be regulated by the compromises made in the Constitution. That in cases of newly acquired territory, not inhabited, he considered it an open question for legislation, on the expediency of the terms and conditions of admission; that, in the case of Alabama, it was territory, since acquired by purchase; it was a settled country, and with a dense population, with slavery existing before the purchase. That it would be a violation of the rights of property, and bad faith to the inhabitants and settlers, to add to Alabama the restriction which he had moved, and which was now under discussion on the Missouri bill. He should not, therefore, move such condition to the Alabama bill, and he believed no such condition would be moved." The question was carried without opposition or division.

General Tallmadge acquired popularity by the independent and manly course pursued by him on this subject; and, whether in public or private life has continued to enjoy the confidence and respect of his fellow-citizens. He was chosen a delegate to the convention for altering the Constitution of his native State in 1821-was a member of the Legislature in 1824—and bore a leading part in the great contest of that session, in favor of submitting the choice of presidential electors to the people; which measure was carried in the House, and afterwards defeated in the Senate by the vote of what was then called "the immortal seventeen." It was during this session of the Legislature that the administration of the General Government adopted measures, and appointed officers, for the collection of tonnage duties on the canal from Buffalo to Albany, which had just then been completed and was coming into active business operations. General Tallmadge submitted a resolution to the Legislature, strongly dissenting from the col

lection of such duties; and among other things declaring that the State with a due regard to public justice could not acquiesce in such a measure, and ought to resist it as "another Boston tea tax." The resolution was adopted by a unanimous vote, and all further endeavors to collect tonnage duties on the canal were from that time discontinued.

General Tallmadge was elected lieutenant governor of the State in 1825, by a very large vote, having received a majority of 32,000 over the opposing candidate; this was the largest majority that has at any time been given in the State. He was again elected a member of the convention for altering the constitution of the State in 1846, and bore an able and efficient part in all the duties of that important convention.

He was one of the founders of the University in the city of New York, and served as president of its council for many years. During his absence from the United States, in 1841, the degree of LL. D. was conferred upon him by that institution. The address delivered on the completion of the University edifice, and published by the council, shows the wisdom and liberality of his views on the important subject of education and letters.

In 1828 he came to reside in the city of New York. The American Institute, an association incorporated for the encouragement of agriculture, commerce, manufacture and the arts, viewing him as a gentleman of pure moral character, and above the influence of the scheming politician, early sought his aid in carrying forward the great objects for which the institution had been formed. They were not disappointed in his hearty support of all measures calculated to advance the industrial interests of our country. Although he has repeatedly offered his resignation and expressed a wish to retire, he has been continued by annual election, at the head of the institution as its President for a period of seventeen years; and has performed the duties of the station with undeviating firmness and a constant readiness to lend his powerful aid in accomplishing its legitimate designs. At the recent election he was rechosen by unanimous vote. His numerous public addresses in support of the principles of the institution have been printed and widely disseminated, and bear evidence of his zeal and service in the cause of our national welfare.

Having been severely afflicted by the loss of several members of his family, in May, 1835, General Tallmadge left the United States for the purpose of making the tour of Europe. Few private American citizens while abroad have received the attentions which were bestowed on him by men of rank and authority in the different countries through which he passed. During his absence he embraced every opportunity of transmitting to his favorite Institute the most useful publications, drawings, maps, and every species of information which might be turned to account for the benefit of his fellowcitizens.

While on his tour in Russia, several incidents occurred which show the respect entertained for him by the Russian government, and the interest he has always taken in the commerce as well as in the agriculture and manufactures of his own country. A treaty arrangement had long existed between Russia, Sweden and Denmark, to guard the Baltic, by a rigorous quarantine, from contagious diseases, which was enforced at Elsineur. The commerce of the United States was seriously annoyed by this quarantine. It often delayed a voyage from twenty to sixty days, subjecting vessels to enormous exactions, much depending on the caprice or the cupidity of those charged with the execution of the laws. Several masters of American ves