From The Saturday Review.

THE EXPECTED GREAT COMET.*

"Lalande [says Mr. Hind, Great Comet, p. 33], in his Bibliographie, mentions a publication by Fabricius, relative to the comet, printed at Nürnberg in 1556; probably, if this work could be recovered, we might be in possession of more definite information with respect to his observations, but I am not aware that it has been found in any library; we must therefore have recourse to the chart which is given in the curious book of Prodigies, Omens, &c., by Conrad Wolfhardt, better known as Lycosthenes."

Thus wrote Mr. Hind in 1848. But that painstaking and persevering astronomer did not rest content with the chart in Lycosthenes, though he could then have recourse to nothing better. He stirred up Professor Littröw, the Director of the Imperial Observatory of Vienna, who, at Mr. Hind's urgent instiga

THE Catalogue of Comets presents about thirteen of those bodies which are denominated great or grand. Of these thirteen, two appeared in the seventeenth century, three in the eighteenth century, and five in the nineteenth century. The remaining three belong to the respective years 1264, 1472, and 1556. Of these the first was the comet which was regarded as a presage of the sickness and death of Pope Urban IV., and the last was actually the occasion of Charles V. of Austria abdicating his throne in favor of his son Ferdinand. The comet of 1264 seems to have been an object of great size and brilliancy. The descriptions we possess of its appearance and course among the stars are vague in the extreme. The observers seem to have been of tion, undertook the formidable task of a search the Guy Mannering class, and to have relied on the eye alone for a determination of the various positions assumed by the stranger. There are discrepancies, too, in their accounts, as might be expected; but they concur in stating that the comet's splendor was greatest at the end of August and the beginning of September. When the head was just visible above the eastern horizon in the morning sky, the tail stretched out past the mid-heaven towards the west, or was nearly 1000 in length.

through some of the principal German libraries for the lost Judicium and chart of Fabricius. At length, success beyond all expectation rewarded Professor Littröw's praiseworthy labors, and he discovered at Vienna and Augsburg the original chart and the Latin Judicium upon the comet; and not only this, but he found in the Ducal libraries at Wolfenbuttel and Gotha a descriptive treatise on the Comet by Joachim Heller. The observations of Fabricius extend over less than a fortnight, whereas those of Heller cover no less than The comet of 1556, on the contrary, was fifty-three days-a circumstance which shows carefully charted by two great astronomers- the supreme importance of Heller's treatise. Paul Fabricius, mathematician and physician It has long been a favorite speculation to Charles V., and Joachim Heller, of Nürn- with astronomers that the comets of 1264 berg. Contemporary writers describe it as and 1556 were but two appearances of the a great and brilliant star." Its apparent same body. With a view to identification, diameter is said to have been equal to half Mr. Dunthorne, in the middle of the last that of the moon, and its tail to have resembled century, calculated the elements of the comet "the flame of a torch agitated by the wind." of 1264 from the data of Friar Giles's MS., The tail, however, does not seem at any time to have been of extraordinary length. Gemma says it was 40 only.

Of the labors of Heller little or nothing was known till lately. Mr. Hind makes no allusion whatever to that astronomer in his first publication. With the labors of Fabricius, Mr. Hind was at that time acquainted only through the medium of Lycosthenes and some other writers, in whose works "a small rough

chart" of the observations of Fabricius was
found:-

On the Expected Return of the Great Comet of
1264 and 1556. By J. R. Hind. Hoby. 1848.
The Comet of 1556. By J. R. Hind. John W.
Parker and Son. 1857.

and some other records. Subsequently, M. Pingré assigned elements to that comet somewhat differing from those of Mr. Dunthorne. Dr. Halley had already calculated the elements of the comet of 1556, and the result was

"That the comet of 1264 was very probably the same as that of 1556, since it appeared, after careful investigation, that the general path of the comet in 1264 corresponded well with what it should have been, supposing the more certainly observed comet of 1556 had been visible in the former year."-(Comet of 1556, p. 5)

Assuming this identity, then, the problem presented was this-to find when the comet

What invests this problem with singular interest is the fact that this is the first attempt of any astronomer to bring to the test of experience the calculation of the return of a comet of long period. Halley's comet has a period of 76 years, or thereabouts. That is called a comet of short period. Beyond 100 years, a comet is called one of long period. If the comets of 683 and 104 be identical with the comet of Charles V., the expected visitor has an average period of 292 years.

will again become visible. Now the solution | our knowledge extends, the return of the
of this problem is fraught with an uncertainty comet may be expected in the present year.
which is independent of the assumption of
identity. The returns of several comets of
short period are regularly predicted with ex-
treme accuracy; but when we come to deal
with a body which occupies nearly three hun-
dred years in traversing its orbit, the case is
different, for how are we to tell that a comet
which wanders to such an immeasurable dis-
tance beyond the confines of our system may
not get eddyed (so to speak) by some great
planet whose distance renders it invisible to
us, and so get lost, like Lexell's comet?
The most we can say is, that the probabilities
are vastly against such a supposition. Ac
cordingly, first Mr. Dunthorne, and secondly
M. Pingré, about twenty years later, assigned
elements for the orbit of the comet of 1556
which more or less satisfactorily represent
that of the comet of 1264. These calculators
agreed in looking for a return of the comet
in 1848..

Between the years 1843 and 1847, Mr. Hind investigated the question anew, and determined an orbit for the comet more in harmony with its observed appearances than that of M. Pingré, or of his predecessors. On the basis of that orbit M. Bomme, of Middleburg, in the Netherlands, undertook and accomplished the enormous labor of computing the effect on the comet's orbit of the masses of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and the new planet Neptune, and partially of the Earth, Venus, and Mars. He had already gone through this labor once on the assumption of the elements assigned by Dr. Halley, and found that the comet would be in perihelion on August 22nd, 1860. His new calculations, however, led him to a more reliable conclusion. On Mr. Hind's elements, he found that the comet would attain its perihelion distance on August 2nd, 1858.

Mr. Hind is now, we believe, engaged in superintending the rectification of M. Bomme's calculations, supposing the elements of the orbit to be deduced from Heller's observations. The results are not yet published, further than Mr. Hind's statement in the Times-first, that the comet is expected somewhat sooner in perihelion; and secondly that the probability of the identity of the comets of 1264 and 1556 is increased by the knowledge of Heller's treatise. The question, then, stands thus at present-as far as

It is fortunately unnecessary for us to speculate on the danger of our immersion in the cometic atmosphere, for six millions of miles is the least possible distance at which the comet can pass us. Still, if it should come up from the sun as frightfully hot as Sir I. Newton's speculations would justify us in expecting, its proximity even at that distance would be rather worse than a serious inconvenience. Those speculations, however, are based on the assumption of a constitution of comets which extended observations have not borne out. Professor Nichol says of one comet, that if it were to be compressed until it became as dense as atmospheric air, it would hardly occupy a cubic inch of space. If this statement be correct, there must be comets reflecting light which are not so dense as the finest artificial vacuum.

It is an old belief that sundry extraordinary events invariably accompany the appearance of a great comet. The fall of empires, the heat of summer, the prevalence of epidemics, spots on the sun, large meteors, and inordinate fertility in the human species, are among the alleged accompaniments of great comets. In the Gentleman's Magazine for 1818 is an article on the supposed influences of the celebrated comet of that year, in which the writer sums up thus: "Wasps were few; flies became blind, and disappeared early; a great many women brought forth twins; and the wife of a shoemaker, at Whitechapel, had four children at a birth." Mr. Hind's last publication was written with the object of answering everyday questions on the expected comet; but his earlier tract has some scientific pretensions. Besides giving copious extracts from various records of the appearances of the comet, it contains ephemerides for the use of explorers.

On the 2nd June, at 10 P.M., Dr. Donati

of Florence discovered a comet in the con- middle of August, or certainly in September; stellation Leo, of which he obtained the fol- though, if it have not already passed perihe lowing approximate position:-R. A. 9h. lion, it is unlikely that it will become a con24 35". Decl. +23° 55'. This body has spicuous object. Nor must we be disapsince been seen at the Paris Observatory; pointed if, when it is blazing in our midnight and it has been suggested that it is the long-sky, we should see no tail, or a very insignifi expected comet of Charles V., which the ob- cant one. The tail is the most capricious at served course of the wanderer seems to render tribute of a comet-at one visit being of vast not improbable. The great comet was looked dimensions, at another scarcely distinguishable for under the arc of stars in the head of from the coma; and at one visit the same Hydra, which is not inconsistent with its comet may exhibit every conceivable variety being at present in Leo. The suggestion, of tail. In all probability we shall see no however, requires further confirmation. If it great length of tail, unless the comet be be found correct, we shall probably get a view favorably placed for observation after leaving of the comet with the unassisted eye by the | the sun.

7

No. 747.-18 September, 1858.-Enlarged Series, No. 25.

Snow

POETRY.-The Cable, 882. The Anglo-Saxon Times, 882. Alone with God, 905. Drift, 905. To a Wearied Worker, 905. A Baby's Song, 905. The Night After Culloden, 960. On the Path, 960.

SHORT ARTICLES.-Four Gospels in Syriac, 909. Paul Morphy, 909. Church Bells, 915. Laughter, 915. The Atlantic Telegraph Cable is Landing, 948. Affectation of Feeling, 948. The Second Vision of Daniel, 953. Strange Vicissitudes in the Life of a Nobleman, 959. A Handsome Contribution, 959.

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