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COUNT NESSELRODE'S EXPLANATION.

419

effect, would simply make foreigners of ten millions of the subjects of the Porte, or depose the Sultan as their sovereign, putting the Emperor of Russia in his place."

Two days after this letter was written, the Prince wrote to Baron Stockmar. His letter is the more interesting, inasmuch at this time a section of the English press had begun to throw on him and his alleged Russian sympathies the blame of what they considered the undue forbearance of the Government with the aggressive proceedings of the Czar :—

'The Eastern complication has reached a new stage. "S'il parle, il est perdu," said an antagonist, in the old French Chamber, of one of the Ministers. So has it been with Nesselrode. He has for the first time in the Note explicative which you have read assigned reasons why the Turkish modifications of the Vienna Note are unacceptable, and in doing so he has shown the cloven foot and let the cat out of the bag! He sees his mistake, and already Kisseleff, in Paris, is saying that the Note is not to be regarded as cfficial.

'We can, however, no longer urge the acceptance of the Vienna Note, which has proved to be a trap set by Meyendorff through Buol; we dare, moreover, no longer believe the protestations of the Emperor Nicholas, that the question at issue is a point of honour, an ultimatum which does not admit of change, a new acknowledgment of old rights. All that is at an end.

'But how now to avoid an European war? For only with the most dishonourable cowardice on the part of the Powers, could the demands be conceded by them which are now set up. Austria indeed is capable of this moral degradation, and an Imperial visit, with orders, &c., can do much; but we, I trust, will never sink so low. I cannot disguise from you, that the course of the whole affair has done Aberdeen infinite injury with the public, and the outcry against him and Clarendon will soon become loud, unjustly so; but the mass of mankind judges only after the event.

'Aberdeen is quite right, and is to be honcured and applauded for maintaining, as he does, that we must deal with

The argument indicated in this letter was adopted and carried out in detail by Lord Clarendon in a despatch to Sir G. Hamilton Seymour at St. Petersburg on the 30th of September.

420

BRITISH FLEET AT THE BOSPHORUS.

1853

our enemies as honourable men, and deal honourably towards them; but that is no reason why we should think they are so in fact; this is what he does, and maintains that it is right to do.

The worst symptom of all is the danger to which Turkish fanaticism has already given rise in Constantinople. Our fleet is under orders to run in there, should the lives of the Christian population or of the Sultan himself be in danger; and four ships have accordingly sailed for the Bosphorus. The greater the tumult, the better are the Russians pleased.

'Balmoral, 27th September, 1853.'

The same day the Prince wrote to the Dowager Duchess of Coburg: We should enjoy the stay here greatly, were it not for the horrible Eastern complication. We are doing all we can to maintain peace. An European war would be a terrible calamity. It will not do to give up all hope. Still what we have is small.'

CHAPTER XLIX.

War declared by Turkey-British and French Fleets ordered to the Bosphorus-Memorandum by the Prince on the Eastern Question-Views of Lords Aberdeen and Palmerston-Letter by Emperor of Russia to the Queen-Her Majesty's Reply-Lord Palmerston resigns, then withdraws Resignation-Prince objects to proposed Statue of himself.

THE hope of maintaining peace was growing rapidly fainter. Hitherto the Western Powers had been able by their representations to restrain the Turkish Divan from declaring war; but such was now the excitement among the Mussulman population at Constantinople and elsewhere, that this decisive step could no longer be averted. Time was everything to Russia. By the spring she would be able to bring an overwhelming force into the field to support the troops she had thrown into Wallachia. On the other hand, it was ruin to Turkey, which had to bear the cost of what was in truth war, without the opportunity of striking a blow before her adversary was reinforced. But if the gauntlet were once thrown down, what little chance might previously have been left of a peaceful adjustment—and it was very little-was too surely at an end.

'Come soon, if you can,' the Prince writes to Baron Stockmar, from Balmoral, on the 5th of October. 'Your counsel and support will be of extraordinary value to us!

'The Turks have declared war; what will the four Powers do? By this our mediation policy is knocked on the head. We cannot look on and see the Porte destroyed by Russia; active assistance is European war-if it succeeds, then fanatical oppression of the Christians in the East becomes in the ascendant! To leave the Porte in the lurch is death to the Ministry, to declare war is not much else. Graham is here, the Cabinet meets in London to-morrow, we go south this day week, and shall be there on Friday.'

Some months before, when he thought the Eastern question likely to be satisfactorily settled, Lord Aberdeen, natu

422

PROPOSED CHANGE IN CABINET.

1853

rally anxious for the repose which his advanced age demanded, had been ready to vacate his position in favour of Lord John Russell. He soon found, however, that this would lead to a break-up of the Cabinet. Lord Palmerston's determination never again to serve under Lord John Russell was well known; none of the Peelites would willingly do so, and some even of Lord Russell's old Whig supporters deprecated a change, which would place him at the head of affairs. A Reform Bill had been promised by the Ministry; and this, which was Lord John Russell's favourite project, he wished to be in a position to introduce with all the authority of himself as Premier. But the public mind had been thoroughly diverted by Eastern affairs from the subject of Reform, and these were now in a position which made retirement impossible for Lord Aberdeen with credit to himself or without injury to the Government. The matter was subsequently arranged for the time. Meanwhile, enough has been told to explain what is said by the Prince on the subject in the conclusion of the same letter:

'Lord John, bent upon being Prime Minister, has changed his ground for setting up his claim that the Reform Bill ought to be brought forward by him as Premier, and is now causing Aberdeen trouble on the Eastern question. He has already wanted to resign twice.

'Aberdeen is ready to go, but not to run away from the Eastern complication. The next few weeks will bring matters to a crisis.

Both the French Government and our own still clung to the hope that an amicable termination of the dispute between the Czar and the Sultan might yet be reached. But they felt they could no longer withhold their material support from the latter, and accordingly authority was sent to our Ambassador at Constantinople (8th October), in concert with Admiral Dundas and his French colleague, to employ the combined. fleets in whatever manner, or at whatever place, he might think necessary for defending the Turkish territory against direct aggression. If the Russian fleet came out of Sebastopol, the fleets were then to pass through the Bosphorus into the Black Sea.

In taking this step the Allies did at once too much and too little, too much, in as far as they thus pledged them

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FLEET ORDERED TO THE BOSPHORUS.

423

selves to defend the Turkish territory, if attacked, without at the same time taking any guarantees that the Turks would not provoke an attack, and so involve us in active war; too little, inasmuch as they did not put themselves in a position to prevent Russia from inflicting disaster in the Black Sea upon Turkey and its fleet. When informed of the decision of the Cabinet, the Queen, in writing to Lord Clarendon (11th October), expressed her misgivings about the step which had been taken. It appears to the Queen, that we have taken on ourselves, in conjunction with France, all the risks of an European war, without having bound Turkey to any conditions with respect to provoking it. The 120 fanatical Turks constituting the Divan at Constantinople are left sole judges of the line of policy to be pursued, and made cognisant at the same time of the fact that England and France have bound themselves to defend the Turkish territory. This is entrusting them with a power which Parliament has been jealous of confiding even to the hands of the British Crown. It may be a question, whether England ought to go to war for the defence of the so-called Turkish independence; but there can be none, that, if she does so, she ought to be the sole judge of what constitutes a breach of that independence, and have the fullest power to prevent by negotiation the breaking out of the war.'

The state of affairs had now become so critical, that the stay of the Court at Balmoral was cut short, and the Court returned to Windsor Castle on the 14th of October. Next day the Prince wrote to Baron Stockmar:

'We arrived here yesterday evening, all lively and well, and have also found our Osborne section of the children strong and blooming. As I believe it will please you to hear this, I mention it the first thing.

In politics we have also made some progress. The Cabinet up to this time have maintained perfect harmony.

...

'Aberdeen has unfortunately made concessions, which bring us nearer war. . . . The business stands thus. Negotiations for the maintenance of peace were to have been attempted on the principle of the different Notes which had failed. Meanwhile the Porte declared war, and the fleets are now gone off to Constantinople, with directions "to protect the Turkish territory against any overt act of hostility against Turkey by sea."