In the last three years the whole of our exports was between 44 and 45 millions. In the three years preceding the war, it was no more than from 35 to 36 millions. The average balance of the former period was £. 3.706.000; of the latter, fomething above four millions. It is true, that whilst the impreffions of the author's deftructive war continued, our trade was greater than it is at prefent. One of the neceffary confequences of the peace was, that France must gradually recover a part of thofe markets of which she had been originally in poffeffion. However, after all these deductions, still the grofs trade in the worst year of the present is better than in the best year of any former period of peace. A very great part of our taxes, if not the greatest, has been impofed fince the beginning of this century. On the author's principles, this continual encrease of taxes must have ruined our trade, or at leaft entirely checked its growth. But I have a manufcript of Davenant, which contains an abstract of our trade for the years 1703 and 1704; by which it appears, that the whole export from England did not then exceed £.6.552.019. It is now confiderably more than double that amount. Yet England was then a rich and flourishing nation.

The author endeavours to derogate from the balance in our favour as it ftands on the entries, and reduces it from four millions as it there appears to no more than £.2.500.000.

Medium balance for three laft years,

His obfervation on the loofenefs and inaccuracy of the export entries is just; and that the error is always an error of excefs, I readily admit. But because, as ufual, he has wholly omitted fome very material facts, his conclufion is as erroneous as the entries he complains of.

On this point of the custom-house entries I shall make a few obfervations. ft. The inaccuracy of these entries can extend only to FREE GOODS, that is, to fuch British products and manufactures, as are exported without drawback and without bounty; which do not in general amount to more than two-thirds at the very utmost of the whole export even of our home products. The valuable articles of corn, malt, leather, hops, beer, and many others, do not come under this objection of inaccuracy. The article of CERTIFICATE GOODS re-exported, a vast branch of our commerce, admits of no error (except fome fmaller frauds which cannot be estimated), as they have all a drawback of duty, and the exporter must therefore correctly specify their quantity and kind. The author therefore is not warranted from the known error in fome of the entries, to make a general defalcation from the whole balance in our favour. This error cannot affect more than half, if fo much, of the export article. 2dly. In the account made up at the inspector general's office, they estimate only the original cost of British products as they are here purchased; and on foreign goods, only the prices in the country from whence they are fent. This was the method established by Mr. Davenant; and, as far as it goes, it certainly is a good one. But the profits of the merchant at home, and of our factories abroad, are not taken into the account: which profit on fuch an immenfe quantity of goods exported and re-exported cannot fail of being very great: five per cent. upon the whole, I should think a very moderate allowance. 3dly. It does not comprehend the ad

vantage

vantage arising from the employment of 600.000 tons of shipping, which must be paid by the foreign consumer, and which, in many bulky articles of commerce, is equal to the value of the commodity. This can fcarcely be rated at lefs than a million annually. 4thly, The whole import from Ireland and America, and from the Weft Indies, is fet against us in the ordinary way of striking a balance of imports and exports; whereas the import and export are both our own. This is just as ridiculous, as to put against the general balance of the nation, how much more goods Cheshire receives from London, than London from Chefhire. The whole revolves and circulates through this kingdom, and is, fo far as it regards our profit, in the nature of home trade, as much as if the feveral countries of America and Ireland were all pieced to Cornwall. The course of exchange with all these places is fully fufficient to demonstrate that this kingdom has the whole advantage of their commerce. When the final profit upon a whole fyftem of trade refts and centers in a certain place, a balance ftruck in that place merely on the mutual fale of commodities is quite fallacious. 5thly, The custom-house entries furnish a most defective, and indeed ridiculous idea, of the most valuable branch of trade we have in the world, that with Newfoundland. Observe what you export thither; a little fpirits, provifion, fishing lines, and fishing hooks. Is this export the true idea of the Newfoundland trade in the light of a beneficial branch of commerce nothing lefs. Examine our imports from thence; it feems, upon this vulgar idea of exports and imports, to turn the balance against you. But your exports to Newfoundland are your own goods. Your import is your own food; as much your own, as that you raife with your ploughs out of your own foil; and not your lofs, but your gain; your riches, not your poverty. But fo fallacious is VOL. I.

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this way of judging, that neither the export nor import, nor both together, fupply any idea approaching to adequate of that branch of bufinefs. The veffels in that trade go ftrait from Newfoundland to the foreign market; and the fale there, not the import here, is the measure of its value. That trade which is one of your greatest and best is hardly fo much as feen in the custom-house entries; and it is not of lefs annual value to this nation than £.400.000. 6thly, The quality of your imports must be confidered as well as the quantity. To ftate the whole of the foreign import as loss, is exceedingly abfurd. All the iron, hemp, flax, cotton, Spanish wool, raw filk, woollen and linen yarn, which we import, are by no means to be confidered as the matter of a merely luxurious confumption; which is the idea too generally and loosely annexed to our import article. The fe above-mentioned are materials of industry, not of luxury, which are wrought up here, in many inftances, to ten times, and more, of their original value. Even where they are not fubfervient to our exports, they ftill add to our internal wealth, which confifts in the ftock of useful commodities, as much as in gold and filver. In looking over the fpecific articles of our export and import, I have often been aftonished to fee for how fmall a part of the fupply of our confumption, either luxurious or convenient, we are indebted to nations properly foreign to us.

These confiderations are entirely paffed over by the author; they have been but too much neglected by moft who have fpeculated on this fubject. But they ought never to be omitted by those who mean to come to any thing like the true state of the British trade. They compensate, and they more than compenfate, every thing which the author can cut off with any appearance of reafon for the over-entry of British goods; and they reftore to us that balance of four

millions,

millions, which the author has thought proper on fuch a very poor and limited comprehenfion of the object to reduce to £.2.500.000.

In general this author is fo circumftanced, that to fupport his theory he is obliged to affume his facts; and then, if you allow his facts, they will not fupport his conclufions. What if all he fays of the state of this balance were true? did not the fame objections always lie to custom-house entries? do they defalcate more from the entries of 1766 than from those of 1754? If they prove us ruined, we were always ruined. Some ravens have always indeed croaked out this kind of fong. They have a malignant delight in prefaging mischief, when they are not employed in doing it: they are miferable and disappointed at every inftance of the public profperity. They overlook us like the malevolent being of the

Tritonida confpicit arcem

Ingeniis, opibufque, et fefta pace virentem;

poet :

Vixque tenet lacrymas quia nil lacrymabile cernit.

It is in this fpirit that fome have looked upon those accidents that cast an occasional damp upon trade. Their imaginations entail these accidents upon us in perpetuity. We have had fome bad harvests.. This muft very difadvantageously affect the balance of trade, and the navigation of a people, fo large a part of whofe commerce is in grain. But, in knowing the caufe, we are morally certain, that, according to the course of events, it cannot long fubfift. In the three last years, we have exported fcarcely any grain; in good years, that export hath been worth twelve hundred thoufand pounds and more; in the two laft years, far fròm exporting, we have been obliged to import to the amount perhaps of our former exportation. So that in this article. the balance must be £. 2.000.000 against us; that is, one million

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