Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models
University of Michigan Press, 1998 - 486 oldal
Emerging from the tradition of Marshall, Knight, Keynes, and Shackle, Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models is concerned with the character of formal economic analysis when the notions of logical or mechanical time and probabilistic uncertainty and the relatively complete knowledge basis it requires, are replaced, respectively, by historical time, and nonprobabilistic uncertainty and ignorance. Examining that analytical character by constructing and exploring particular models, this book emphasizes doing actual economic analysis in a framework of historical time, nonprobabilistic uncertainty, and ignorance.
Donald W. Katzner begins with an extensive investigation of the distinction between potential surprise and probability. He presents a modified version of Shackle's model of decision-making in ignorance and examines in considerable detail its "comparative statics" and operationality properties. The meaning of aggregation and simultaneity under these conditions is also explored, and Shackle's model is applied to the construction of models of the consumer, the firm, microeconomics, and macroeconomics. Katzner concludes with discussions of the roles of history, hysteresis, and empirical investigation in economic inquiry.
Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models will be of interest to economists and others engaged in the study of uncertainty, probability, aggregation, and simultaneity. Those interested in the microeconomics of consumer and firm behavior, general equilibrium, and macroeconomics will also benefit from this book.
Donald W. Katzner is Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts.
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Alternatives to Equilibrium Analysis
Potential Surprise and Potential Confirmation
Distribution Frequency and Density Functions
Making Decisions in Ignorance
Examples and Comparative Statics
Simultaneity and Kaleidics
Más kiadások - Összes megtekintése
actually aggregate demand aggregate supply arise assets assumed assumption attractiveness function bank behavior Chapter choice option comparative statics constraint consumer context decision index decision maker defined demand for money demand functions described determined durable input economic equation equilibrium analysis example excess demand firm firm's focus gain focus loss frequency probability future hence historical hypotheses hysteresis ignorance implies income individual initial endowment investment IOU markets iso-attractiveness contours issues kaleidic labor macroeconomic market clearing maximization model of decision money balances money capital money supply objects of choice observed output outstanding IOUs parameters partial derivatives period planned portfolio possible potential surprise density potential surprise function potential surprise values present produced quantities random variable rate of return realized relations relevant required rate respect Section 4.3 simultaneous store of value subsets supply curve surprise density functions Theorem Theory time-path tion trade unique utility function utility outcomes vector Vickers