Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models

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University of Michigan Press, 1998 - 486 oldal
Emerging from the tradition of Marshall, Knight, Keynes, and Shackle, Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models is concerned with the character of formal economic analysis when the notions of logical or mechanical time and probabilistic uncertainty and the relatively complete knowledge basis it requires, are replaced, respectively, by historical time, and nonprobabilistic uncertainty and ignorance. Examining that analytical character by constructing and exploring particular models, this book emphasizes doing actual economic analysis in a framework of historical time, nonprobabilistic uncertainty, and ignorance.
Donald W. Katzner begins with an extensive investigation of the distinction between potential surprise and probability. He presents a modified version of Shackle's model of decision-making in ignorance and examines in considerable detail its "comparative statics" and operationality properties. The meaning of aggregation and simultaneity under these conditions is also explored, and Shackle's model is applied to the construction of models of the consumer, the firm, microeconomics, and macroeconomics. Katzner concludes with discussions of the roles of history, hysteresis, and empirical investigation in economic inquiry.
Time, Ignorance, and Uncertainty in Economic Models will be of interest to economists and others engaged in the study of uncertainty, probability, aggregation, and simultaneity. Those interested in the microeconomics of consumer and firm behavior, general equilibrium, and macroeconomics will also benefit from this book.
Donald W. Katzner is Professor of Economics, University of Massachusetts.

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Tartalomjegyzék

Alternatives to Equilibrium Analysis
1
Potential Surprise and Potential Confirmation
39
Distribution Frequency and Density Functions
79
Making Decisions in Ignorance
103
Examples and Comparative Statics
149
Operationality
199
Aggregation
237
Simultaneity and Kaleidics
255
The Firm
277
The Consumer and the Demand for Money
303
A Model of the Microeconomy
331
A Model of the Macroeconomy
369
History
429
Empirical Analysis
453
Index
475
Copyright

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