Startled, she faltered out something | have liked it. She used often to talk of about "waiting a little longer." the day when she would dress me as a bride." "I have waited. It is now nearly nine months since that day at Berne, when "I did but see her passing by, And yet I love her till I die.' "That would have been very foolish," said Silence, with a naïve gravity, "unless, indeed, you had followed up the acquaintance, and come to know me well." Suddenly putting her two hands in her lover's "You do know me, faults and all, so take me; and, oh! be good to me! I have only you." "And I you. also ?" You will be good to me She smiled. "Little use in talking, but I think there will never come a day when I would not cheerfully die, if my dying could help you. My living will much more. So I mean to live." And she looked up fondly, with all her soul in her eyes, at her young bridegroom. Would she, forty, fifty years hence, see in the old man's face that of this lover of her youth, the face forgotten by all but her? God knows! but it is good to believe so. Ay! we elders may reason and preach, say that "calf" love is all nonsense, and early marriage most imprudent, that young people should part and forget, and a broken heart is soon healed. Every new generation gives the lie to that doctrine. True, hundreds fall in love and "get over it;" yet now and then there is such a thing as a lost love and a lost life. | Life with love, and life without it; that is, as Silence had once said, all the difference! But what a difference! For any parent who needlessly causes it, out of whim, or worldliness, or any thing except righteousness and justice, I can only say, as was said of those who willfully offend "one of these little ones," "It were better that a millstone were hanged about his neck, and he were cast into the depth of the sea. 29 The marriage was arranged, of course, to be quite quiet. All the usual Swiss festivities, the soirée aux bouquets before the wedding, and the ball after it, were of necessity omitted. The Reynier family alone were to "assist" at the ceremony, for which the girls implored Silence would, for one day only, put off her mourning and assume proper bridal white. She assented, "because my mother would As usual, the day before the religious was the civil marriage; that curious ceremony, when a few words spoken in an upper chamber in the Hôtel de Ville, before a rather dense official, with only Monsieur Reynier and Sophie standing by as witnesses, made Roderick and Silence Jardine man and wife. The afternoon of that day, so strangely un-English and informal, was spent by them in walking up and down their favorite alley, and planting violets over the grave beside it-the mother's solitary grave. Solitary, but not sad, not even to the daughter who was leaving it, for the love remained, the love which had lasted to the end. "And she would be glad, so glad! if she knew that you were taking care of me," said Silence, with a bright smile, though her tears were dropping down. "Also, a little, that I was taking care of you. She used to say it was my métier always to take care of somebody. Therefore, adieu, my mother! You will not forget me, wherever you are; nor I you." She laid her cheek on the white headstone in a passion of sobs, then suddenly checked them all, gave her hand to her bridegroom, and suffered him to lead her away home. He did not see her again till eleven next morning, when Sophie, Marie, and Jeanne Reynier led into the salon and left beside him, shutting the door upon them both, the whitest, loveliest vision! More like an angel than a woman, he thought then, nor ever ceased to think, though he never saw it but once in his life, on that wonderful wet morning when the deluge itself seemed to have come back upon Neuchâtel, as if to sweep away with its torrents all his old life, and begin the new life with his wedding day. The rain beat in loud storms on the window behind her, yet there she stood, this white angel, in her thin, flowing veil, like a cloud, and her crown of orange blossoms, and her downcast eyes. His own-was it possible she would be his own!-a mortal woman, and his wife? Suddenly he stooped and kissed, not her lips, but her hand. She looked surprised for an instant, perhaps just a little hurt, then perceived at once the deep emotion, the tender reverence. "Oh my love, my love forever! Thank God!" said she, or rather breathed than said it, as she put both her arms round his neck and clung to his bosom. She was but a woman after all. 66 scelle dans vos cœurs le lien que vous venez de former, qu'Il le sanctifie de plus en plus, et que vous viviez ensemble en JésusChrist, dans l'attente du jour où ceux qui se seront aimés en Lui, seront réunis dans Son sein pour l'éternité. Amen." Soon after, Roderick led his bride, both quite calm now and smiling, to the two carriages waiting below. He and she and the Love fixed on the love of God, and good Reyniers drove through the soaking which on the very day of earthly union streets to the damp, empty church, where, could look forward to the day when, their strange contrast to his sister's brilliant | flesh being mere dust, they should be "remarriage, they two stood alone, with not united in the bosom of God for all eternia creature of their own blood beside them, ty"-ay, that was it; that was the true and heard the old minister in his unim- love. Through all the passion of his passioned voice address them as mon youth the young man felt this, and blesscher frère et ma chère sœur," recommend- ed God that he did feel it. And as he ing them to observe "une inviolable fidé- turned and kissed his bride (to the great lité, une entière confiance, et une affection horror of the Demoiselles Reynier, such a toujours plus profonde." Then, having thing being quite contrary to the etiquette answered the few questions of the Swiss of Neuchâtel), in spite of the gloomy marriage liturgy, simple and Protestant, church, the pelting rain, the sad, quiet not unlike his native Presbyterian service, marriage, neglected and unhonored by the young bridegroom listened as if in a kith and kin, it seemed as if all heaven dream to the final blessing. were around and about him, for his was "Que Dieu, notre Père en Jésus-Christ, a true love marriage, honorable before fasse reposer Sa bénédiction sur vous, qu'Il | men, and sanctified in the sight of God. THE FOREIGN INDEBTEDNESS OF THE UNITED STATES. Since 1869 there has been, to my knowledge, no thorough calculation of our foreign debt, except by Dr. Young, in 1874 and 1876, when his estimates were $1,200,000,000 and $1,350,000,000 respectively. These are far too small, which is, perhaps, explained by the exceedingly slight allowance he makes for smuggling. Senator Bogy, of Missouri, in a speech in the United States Senate in 1876, gave, also, a rough estimate, which placed our foreign debt considerably over two billion dollars. I have therefore made 1869 my starting-point, and shall attempt to show the progress of the debt since that time, and the accompanying economic phenomena. R. DAVID A. WELLS, in his Com- | 30, 1869. Adding this to Mr. Wells's estimissioner's Report of 1869, estimated mate as altered by us, we have the total that $465,000,000* of American securities foreign debt June 30, 1869, $1,130,500,000.* other than United States bonds were held abroad on November 1, 1869. The great care taken in the preparation of this estimate, which was made with the assistance of the leading bankers and financiers of the country, entitles it to the fullest confidence, and if carried back to the beginning of the fiscal year would make $435,500,000 on June 30, 1869. As to the amount of United States bonds held abroad, Mr. Wells's estimate of $1,000,000,000 is not so reliable, and that which has rightly received most approval is one two years later by Jay Cooke, McCulloch, and Company, which places the amount at $845,000,000. Calling our increase of debt for the two years $221,061,000, and knowing that seventy per cent. of this was paid in United States bonds, we must, in order to carry back the estimate to 1869, take from it seventy per cent. of this increase, or $150,000,000, leaving $695,000,000+ for June * Gold values alone are here used. This is in harmony with and strengthened by Secretary McCulloch's estimate of $600,000,000 in 1868. Our foreign debt increased in four ways: by excess of imports over exports; by interest on debt previously acquired; by *This includes stocks, which some claim are not debt when owned abroad. But they possess the only two attributes which make bonds a debtthat of claiming interest and of being paid when returned, and they are equally with bonds a continual claim against us to the amount of their value in our markets. payment for freights carried in foreign | of imports over exports for 1869-70 was vessels; and by the expenditure of our $59,537,308. travellers abroad, in the usual form of drafts or letters of credit. It is readily seen that excess of imports over exports creates foreign debt, but to give that excess we must know the extent of smuggling and under-valuation of imports and exports. There have been widely varying estimates of the percentage which smuggling and under-valuation of imports bear to the imports returned to the Treasury Department, the lowest estimate being three per cent. by Dr. Young, in February, 1874, and the highest fifty per cent. by General B. F. Butler, in his speech in 1874 on the repeal of the Moiety Act. The Civil Service Commission appointed by President Grant in 1871 gave thirty-three per cent.,* while in Secretary Sherman's report of 1878, Mr. Tingle, Supervising Agent, gave six per cent. After long calculation, I have determined upon sixteen per cent. as the proper increase, and I adhere to this the more strongly as it agrees almost exactly with Secretary McCulloch's estimate in 1866.+ After the repeal of the Moiety Act in 1874, the immediate increase in smuggling made the percentage as high as eighteen, but since 1876 the increased vigilance of customs officers demands a decrease of the allowance to fifteen per cent. We paid fully five and one-half per cent. interest on our previous debt; for though commissions had to be paid to American bankers, there were few losses before 1873 to reduce the amount to be paid abroad. Our debt on this account for 1869-70 was $62,177,500. When our imports are brought in foreign vessels, we incur a debt for freight; but foreigners incur also a debt to us for freight on our exports carried in our own vessels. It is therefore plain that our foreign debt from this source is the excess of freights paid on our imports brought in foreign vessels over that on our exports carried in our own vessels.* I have called, in accordance with Dr. Young, the average freight on imports six per cent. of their valuation; but as our exports are of a heavier nature, their freight should be increased to seven per cent. With these estimates, our debt on the freight account was $4,608,597. In Mr. Wells's report for 1869, statistics give the average number of American travellers abroad, from 1865 to 1868, 37,000, and the average number of foreign travellers in the United States, 12,000. Allowing the same numbers for 1869-70, and calling the expenditure of American and foreign travellers respectively $900 and $700, we incurred thereby a debt of $25,000,000. These four accounts amount to $151,323,405. Our returned exports must also be increased to account for under-valuation. There has been great carelessness among customs officers and shippers in this matter. But there is one further element to conFor example, the Canadian returns of im- sider. American merchants make a profports from the United States were dur-it of not less than seven per cent. on their ing 1874 to 1877, on the annual average, exports, and foreigners must accordingly $12,000,000 in excess of our returned ex-pay us seven per cent. more than the esports to Canada. We know, however, that there is nowhere such carelessness as on the Canadian border, and I have judged the needed increase for the returned exports of the country to be five per cent. With these allowances, our excess timated export value. This would take $33,033,171 from our previous debit account, leaving $118,290,234, which, with partially accruing interest, makes our total increase of debt for 1869-70, $120,656,038. Mr. Wells has made the singular mistake of holding our freight debt to be the excess of freights on our exports and imports received by foreign vessels over that received by our own vessels. But we have nothing to do with freight on our ex *The actual estimates of General Butler and the Civil Service Commission were respectively thirtythree and twenty-five per cent. of the whole imports; which would be respectively fifty and thirty-three per cent. of the remaining sixty-seven and seventy-ports carried in foreign vessels-they on the other five per cent., or of the amount returned to the Treasury Department. He states that the returned imports should be increased twenty per cent., to account for smuggling, under-valuation, and payments for freights to foreigners. As by my estimate the last factor is only 4.7 per cent., there remains 15.3 per cent. as his estimate for smuggling and under-valuation. side of the water pay that; neither do foreigners pay freight on our imports carried in our own vessels; consequently these two parts have nothing to do with the question; and Mr. Wells, by including them, has more than doubly stated our foreign debt from freights. Mr. William Grosvenor, in his Does Protection Protect? estimates this profit at six per cent. Placing the same in tabular form, we and of our total production ($7,500,000,000), have: $62,177,500 our increase in foreign indebtedness during the year was three per cent. Let us take a brief retrospect over the period 1864 to 1873, during which most of our foreign debt was acquired—a period when invention and progress in industries were so remarkable that, despite the losses 33,033,171 of a long war, our wealth increased fifty 118,290,234 per cent. Of this increase, however, one 2,365,804 great cause has been overlooked--the influence on our industry caused by an immense influx of foreign goods. Our foreign trade during that time, allowing, as before explained, for smuggling and under-valuations, was as follows: 120,656,038 1,130,500,000 $1,251,156,038 $68,813,582 Debt due to freight.. Deduct profits on exports . 164,935,166 1867 460,777,597 349,248,993 111,528,604 1868 404,867,471 370,792,668 84,074,803 1869 478,083,375 333,986,796 144,096,579 1870 501,062,596 441,525,288 59,537,308 595,129,218 538,442,380 56,686,838 716,480,059 526,379,639 190,100,420 Total debt at end of 1871.. For 1872: Interest on old debt. Excess of imports over exports Debt due to freight. Deduct profits on exports... Interest on increase. Increase for 1872.. Adding previous debt Total debt June 30, 1872 For 1873: Interest on old debt.... Excess of imports over exports. Deduct profits on exports...... Interest on increase... Total increase... Adding previous debt Debt at end of 1873 $1,378,913,085 $75,840,219 273,662,123 5,473,242 279,135,365 1,378,913,085 $1,658,048,450 737,142,457 607,885,934 129,256,523 Making the total excess. $925,859,056 This immense sum, given us in goods, 190,100,420 was paid by our securities. Although, up 30,000,000 to 1865, a large part of the imports were 14,961,871 used in the war, they were, later, chiefly 310,902,510 luxuries, and caused, during 1869 to 1873, 37,240,387 an average annual excess of imports over exports of $116,000,000. Did this represent the only effect on the country, it would alone be prodigious; but the division of labor causes every increase in available capital to transmit its effect to all the ramifications of trade. The first receivers of $91,192,659 this $116,000,000, having so much more to 129,256,523 30,000,000 spend, called, to this amount, on those pro16,290,732 ducing their desiderata; these latter pro266,739,914 ducers called on a second class, and so on 46,522,481 -one increase in production ever beget220,217,433 ting its like in another trade. This effect 4,404,348 is best illustrated by supposing perfect di224,621,781 vision of labor, and that in a community 1,658,048,450 A supplies B's wants, B supplies C's, C $1,882,670,231 supplies D's, and D in turn supplies A's. If D received $116,000,000 from abroad, he would call, to that amount, on C; C, $1,130,500,000 having worked hard and produced an 120,656,038 equivalent for the sum, would call in like 127,757,047 manner on B; B, having worked hard, 279,135,365 would call on A; while A would complete 224,621,781 the circle by calling on D, and causing $1,882,670,231 him to produce an increase of goods to the amount he had first received from abroad. Thus one increase begets another; activ ity ever progresses; and this would go on forever, or until man's wants were satisfied, did not such an increase contain the seeds of its own destruction. The prosperity occasioned by any sudden increase of wealth causes an abnormal activity; men become reckless, engage in ruinous investments, and a panic is the result. Again, a large part of this $116,000,000 was in luxuries, which were only partial helps to production, and increased the general extravagance. Secretary McCulloch saw where we were going as early as 1868, and wrote in his report for that year: "Two-thirds of the importations of the United States consist of articles which in economical times would be called luxuries. No exception could be taken to such importations if they were paid for in our own productions. But we were swelling our foreign debt without increasing our ability to pay it. How disastrous such a course of trade, if long continued, must be, it requires no spirit of prophecy to predict." Professor J. E. Cairnes wrote in his Political Economy, edited 1873: "No nation can continue to pay its foreign debts by the process of incurring new debts to meet a balance yearly accruing against it; yet this, in truth, is the nature of the financial operation by which, of late years, the United States has contrived to settle accounts with the rest of the world.... If that country is to continue to discharge her liability to foreigners, the relation which at present obtains between exports and imports must be inverted. Her exports must once again, as previous to 1860, be made to exceed her imports, and this by an amount greater than the excess of that former time, in proportion as her financial obligations to foreign countries have in the interval increased. To establish this, prices there must be lowered in relation to Europe. This may be accomplished partly by an advance in prices here not shared by the United States, as, in fact, has already happened in the case of some important commodities; but it is probable that the end will be reached mainly through a decline of prices on the other side. A considerable decline of general prices, however, is a remedy to which manufacturers and merchants will only submit when pushed to extremity. It will, therefore, only come when credit has been strained to the utmost, and a catastrophe is seen to be inevitable, and then it will probably come with a crash." This great influx of European products, combined with unprecedented inventions and most abundant harvests, had caused an intense activity in trade. All men were fully occupied, and production was enormous. Food being cheap, the imports and proceeds of inventions mainly increased luxury industries, which, fostered by protection, advanced with gigantic strides, and at last, outstripping the ability of the country to support them, were held in their career by the influx of foreign goods. The people, seeing plenty around them, never realized they were using the products of labor other than their own, and mortgaging their future strength. Extravagance and wasteful investments followed, and the panic of 1873 came at last. By the inability of a few to pay their debts, the circular flow of capital was arrested, to the derangement of all portions of trade. This can not be better illustrated than by quoting Walter Bagehot's excellent example in his Lombard Street: "No single large industry can be depressed without injury to other industries; still less can any great group of industries. Each industry, when prosperous, buys and consumes the produce of most (certainly of very many) other industries, and if industry A fail and is in difficulty, industries B, C, and D, which used to sell to A, will not be able to sell that which they had produced in reliance on A's demand, and in future they will stand idle until industry A recovers, because in default of A there will be no one to buy the commodities which they create. Thus as industry B buys of C, D, etc., the adversity of B tells on C, D, etc., and as these buy of E, F, etc., the effect is propagated through the whole alphabet. And in a certain sense it rebounds. Z feels the want caused by the diminished custom of A, B, C, etc., and so it does not earn so much; in consequence it can not lay out so much on the produce of A, B, C, etc., and so these do not earn so much either. As has been explained, the fundamental cause is that under a system where every one is dependent on the labor of every one else, the loss of one spreads and multiplies through all, and spreads and multiplies the faster the higher the previous perfection of the system of divided labor, and the more nice and effectual the mode of interchange.” |