So far as Roumania is concerned, Russia's rulers have been trying for over a year to persuade the Boyar masters of that country to make a treaty with it. So far, Roumania has courteously evaded getting down to business. Whenever we arranged a meeting, the Roumanian peace delegates always missed the train. Let us hope, however, that since our Red army now has no other work on its hands, and heavy detachments have gone into winter quarters in the Ukraine, the Roumanians will be more disposed to peace.

On its southern and eastern fronts, soviet Russia holds a strong defensive line. It has established a connection with the Kemalists via soviet Armenia, and is now in a position to influence the policy of the Turkish nationalists more powerfully than ever. It can aid them against the Entente with war materials, and should they go over to the Entente, it can prevent their efforts to reach Baku. Georgia depends absolutely upon our friendship. It is to be hoped that country will pause a long time before permitting Batum to be used as a base of operations against soviet Russia. Were England to occupy Batum against Georgia's wishes, Russia and Georgia would at once unite to fight England. Moscow is in communication with the Persian government at Teheran, and the Persian people are being taught who are their true protectors against England's imperialist designs.

The soviet government's position in Central Asia has been immensely strengthened by its policy in Turkestan, and by the establishment of a

Bolshevist government in Bokhara. Afghanistan, which the British authorities in India sought to make a bastion against Turkestan, appreciates the peril this represents for itself. The struggle between Russian and English influence at Kabul has not yet ended.

In Siberia, the so-called 'Far East Republic' forms a buffer state between soviet Russia and Japan. One of our vigorous comrades, Krasnostschokof, has prevented the Japanese from penetrating the interior. Japan's designs have received a further check in the agreement concluded between soviet Russia and a group of American capitalists.

All this does not solve soviet Russia's foreign problems, but it facilitates their solution. The Supreme Council of the allies nominally lifted the blockade after the defeat of Denikin and Kolchak, and immediately we started negotiations for a resumption of trade with England. These negotiations have been protracted for a year without a final settlement. The delay is due not only to the obstacles which France keeps putting in the way of peace with Russia, but likewise to the bitter fight in England itself between commercial interests and the military clique. The New Statesman, the organ of the Fabians, very rightly characterized the situation by saying: 'So long as there is still war inside the English Foreign Office, there cannot be peace with Russia.' The English government is trying to barter a resumption of trade with Russia against our agreement to stop revolutionary agitation in Eastern Asia, without giving us any assurance that our commerce will not be paralyzed by seizing our Russian gold. It is clear that no arrangement can be made on such a one-sided basis.

Should the negotiations between

London and Moscow be broken off, we must face the prospect that the Entente will try some new scheme of intervention. Mad as such plans are, they still hover in the fevered imagiEnation of Churchill and French sabre trattlers. Since every local attack on

soviet Russia has failed, the only posEsibility would be to unite all Russia's neighbors in a general attack upon us. That would at once raise the question of Germany's joining the anti-Bolshevist forces. The German government, whose Russian policy follows the devious policy of England like a shadow, is naturally awake to every possibility. Although General Hoffman, of BrestLitovsk fame, committed an egregious blunder in proposing that Germany head a crusade against soviet Russia, a fraction of the German cabinet unquestionably is working on such a scheme. The campaign of abuse against soviet Russia, which has suddenly revived in the German conservative press, is intended to provoke Moscow to retaliation, and thus to sever the weak bond which now unites the two countries.

Soviet Russia watches with attentive composure the conflicting and mutually antagonistic capitalist cliques of western Europe, disputing how best to extinguish the firebrand of revolution our country represents. To make peace with the capitalist powers or to resume trade with them involves perils for the Bolsheviki, against which they are trying to strengthen themselves by economic reorganizations at home. The war threat finds Moscow prepared, and relying not only on its own strength but upon the disunity of its opponents, who, being inspired by selfish greed, do not trust each other. Last of all, we confide in the loyal sympathy of the proletariat abroad, which is growing stronger with every day that passes. Thus

soviet Russia faces its fourth year of battle, from which it confidently hopes again to emerge victorious.

II

LENIN emphasized repeatedly during the late Pan-Russian Congress, that soviet Russia's wars were definitely ended with the signing of the 'not unfavorable' Riga preliminary peace with Poland, and the utter defeat of Wrangel. He asserted that the soviet government had no thought of further military aggression, but desired to devote all its energies to the peaceful reconstruction of Russia's ruined industries. However, his professions were received by Russia's immediate neighbors with a skeptical smile, because incontrovertible facts were talking a very different tongue. Occasional reports of troop movements in the Bolshevist press, information given by Russian fugitives, and the statements of returning war prisoners, piece together like the parts of a mosaic, to form a fairly complete and consistent picture, which reveals with intimidating clearness the careful preparations the Bolshevist General Staff is making for a great campaign.

Authoritative reports from entirely independent sources indicate that the Russians are assembling two powerful army groups, each equipped to operate independently, which they have stationed on the two wings of their gigantic western front. They are pursuing the same strategy which was so successful last year against Poland, concentrating their principal strength at both ends of their line, and threatening their enemies with encirclement so as to force them to surrender their strongest defensive points almost without a struggle. The south army group is in the Ukraine. It consists mainly of the troops which were fighting Petljura last summer, reënforced by

the divisions employed against Wrangel. This army of offense is especially strong in artillery, having in its possession most of the heavy guns and field batteries captured in Crimea. Its object is threefold: to stamp out the still live embers of revolt in the Ukraine; to invade Bessarabia, and finally to encircle Polish Galicia. We do not know how far the soviet government is committed to an attack upon Roumania. It seems beyond question, however, that an attack on Poland had already been decided on, and that it will follow the same strategic plan as last year's offensive. Swinging well south from its base at Kieff, this army will march upon Lemberg, and if it succeeds in capturing that city will have an open road before it into Congress Poland.

The second powerful offensive group is stationed east of Lettland. Its extreme right wing is formed by the Eighth army, which is concentrated around Pleskau. South of it are other corps, part of which are still in process of organization. Their nucleus consists of the Seventh and the Fifteenth armies, whose staffs are provisionally at Vitebsk and Smolensk. The objective of these armies is Poland proper. They are expected to pour through the Polish corridor east of the Dvina, and first seize Vilna and Central Lithuania. The northern wing will protect the flank of the troops engaged in this operation, and by its mere presence prevent intervention by the Baltic states. The Bolshevist General Staff learned a lesson from its defeat last year. It will not disperse its forces, but settle first of all with its most dangerous opponent, Poland. Whether the Red armies propose to seize Lettland and Esthonia if they defeat Poland is something only time can tell. The attack upon the latter country will be conducted with the

same speed as last year. Following closely down the East Prussia border, the Russians will strive constantly to outflank their opponents. This time, the Bolshevist leaders feel that they have organized their supply and support system well enough to insure provisions and munitions for their army, even though the country through which they pass is destitute of local supplies. Gomel, a very important railway centre, has been selected as their principal supply base.

These warlike preparations on Russia's part are perfectly understood in the capitals of the threatened border states, and precautionary measures are being taken. Esthonia and Lettland have a secret understanding as to how they will act in case of war. The Esthonian army has been partly demobilized. Even though the Peipus line is very easily defended, it cannot be held unless the Letts simultaneously station strong forces upon the continuation of that line as far as the Dvina. However, the Lett army is already strongly Bolshevist in sympathy, and its resisting power is very small. The only dependable troops that country has are the Courland Division, the nucleus of which is the Baltic National Guard. I have positive information that the Letts will not attempt to defend the Dvina front, but will leave it to the Poles to shoulder the principal burden there.

Poland has never been deceived for a moment as to the insincerity of the soviet government's peace professions. It has not curtailed its armament, and has demobilized only enough troops to appease popular discontent at home, and to comply with the Riga agreement, which could not be utterly disregarded. At the present time, military preparations on a grand scale are quietly going forward in order that the country may

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lision of two military trains on their way to the front at a point between Predeal and Hermannstadt, has attracted attention to the fact that the deployment of the Roumanian army has already begun. Furthermore, Roumania has asked Paris whether France, and possibly England likewise, would support it if attacked by soviet Russia, and has received an evasive but not a negative answer.

be prepared for any eventuality. First and foremost, the Polish government is endeavoring to organize certain battering rams along its eastern boundary to break the first onrush of the Red army. Feverish efforts are being made to revive the anti-Bolshevist agitation in the Ukraine. In nespite of Balachovich's disaster, Warlo saw is instigating an uprising in White Ruthenia. The 'Commissioners of the ted White Russian People's Republic' in three departments have summoned all Bmen able to carry arms, between the Dodages of sixteen and fifty years, to fight or the Bolsheviki; while the latter are

So we see Eastern Europe already working feverishly on dikes to check the flood of Bolshevism. There is no question but that the situation along this whole front is extremely critical. The soviet government has not a free hand in making its decisions. It has to bear in mind occasional revolts at home, and along its borders, and the provisioning of its army. In regard to the last, the food situation is so bad that Russia may be forced to take the offensive before the snow is off the ground. Such a military venture would be a desperate act on Russia's part, explainable only by irresistible domestic pressure. That country would be staking everything on a single card

dealing with these insurgents without Lmercy wherever they can lay hands on ing | them. Last of all, Zeligowsky is strengthening his forces in Lithuania as rapidly as possible. Any reports to the contrary are designed expressly for the purpose of deceiving the Lithuanians as to what is really going on around Vilna, and also to avoid giving the Russians or the Lithuanians a pretext for attacking Poland. Simultaneously, Poland has sounded Paris as to the prospect of military aid. The recent decision of the League council to send Entente troops to Vilna looks like a concession to Poland, for if neutral forces are occupying Central Lithuania the Russians will hardly attempt to invade this district. Poland will thus obtain an invaluable protection for its left flank, and add to this the prospect that France will be able to send any amount of war materials and other supplies to Poland, under the guise of shipping them to the plebiscite area.

vl

Meantime Roumania is taking precautions on the Bessarabia frontier. A chance news item, reporting the col

on success at the first blow. Unless the enemy countries were overrun before the frost is out of the ground, the spring thaws would bog the whole campaign. If the soviet government postpones a little longer, then it is doubtful whether the war will start before April. During that interval, naturally, something may occur to prevent the anticipated offensive. In any case, should the soviet government again take the field, this will prove that it feels the ground slipping under its feet at home, and that it is resorting to a foreign war in order to forestall a civil war.

I

THE mild evening, delicately tinged by the setting sun, acted, it must be, as a soothing influence upon my friends as well; for the locksmith Bodriaeff and the peasant Froloff, who had just exchanged harsh and insulting words, responded eagerly to my proposal to go rowing, and amicably set about finding the best preserved rowboat to be had among those scattered along the shore..

A little later, when the white twilight of the short northern night was beginning to thicken, and when the last gleams of evening light were dying away in the forest glades, we three, pushing off, slowly glided with the current, while Froloff, seated at the helm, guided the boat with a piece of board.

Nature's beautiful melancholy repose overpowered us, and for a long time we were silent. As if fearing to disturb her gracious calm, we involuntarily surrendered ourselves to gentle revery.

Bodriaeff was the first to speak. "It's wonderful,' he said almost in a whisper; 'how can it be that dawn and twilight meet? Over there, behind the hill, the sunset is still glowing, and here on the other side of the sky rosy stars are already scattered. It looks as if the dawn were already near.'

'Yes,' I replied, in the same half

whisper as Bodriaeff, 'right now, before our eyes, nature is performing a marvelously interesting and mysterious feat. The sun, with her two bloodred burning wings has just covered our whole earthly globe like a bird its young one. One can see this only here, in the north. In the south it is not visible.'

'And why does all this, for example, take place like this?' musingly Froloff began to speak. "That the sun is embracing the earth? And where did the sun itself come from? Learned men know all this, I suppose, but we ignorant people, you know, know nothing about it.'

'You are mistaken, comrade,' I replied; 'even learned men don't know everything. Up to this time, humanity has been wandering among the secrets of nature as in a profound darkness. And all this is because in the old order, separate individuals occupied themselves with the sciences. And of great scholars on the earth there were and are so few that you can count them on your fingers. But when communism spreads over the world, not solitary individuals but millions of people will be busied with the study of nature then it will be possible for humanity to penetrate into all the secrets of existence, and all its riddles will be solved.'

My companions did not reply, and we again became silent.